MACRO LIQUIDITY: HOW MUCH MONEY EXISTS
HOW TO READ THIS WINDOW
- Fed net liquidity = Fed balance sheet minus the Treasury's account at the Fed minus money parked in reverse repo. It is the cash actually available to banks and markets. Rising = easier conditions; falling = tighter.
- Treasury account (TGA): when the Treasury builds cash (tax receipts, bond sales), it pulls money out of the system. When it spends, money flows back.
- Reverse repo (RRP): cash funds park at the Fed overnight. Money leaving RRP flows into bills and markets; it is now near zero, so that buffer is spent.
- Bank reserves are the banks' own balances at the Fed. Reserves falling toward about $2.5T is the zone where 2019-style funding stress started.
- M2 is the broad money stock: deposits plus money funds. Its growth rate drives nominal demand with a lag.
- Fed + ECB + BoJ adds the three big balance sheets at today's exchange rates, so the line moves with policy, not currencies.
- Fed data is weekly (Wednesday, published Thursday); TGA and RRP are daily, so the headline is a daily nowcast.
FED NET LIQUIDITY weekly, 5 years
NET LIQUIDITY DAILY NOWCAST 2 years
TREASURY ACCOUNT vs REVERSE REPO daily, 2 years
FED + ECB + BOJ BALANCE SHEETS USD at today's FX, 5 years
BANK RESERVES AT THE FED 5 years
M2 MONEY SUPPLY 10 years
COMPONENTS
WHERE THE MONEY IS GOING: ETF CREATIONS AND REDEMPTIONS
BY ASSET CLASS net flow, 1 week
BY FUND
US SPOT BITCOIN ETFs: DAILY NET FLOW all issuers, Farside
US SPOT ETHER ETFs: DAILY NET FLOW all issuers, Farside
WHO IS POSITIONED WHERE: SPECULATIVE FUTURES POSITIONING
HOW TO READ THIS WINDOW
- Every week the CFTC publishes who holds futures. Speculators (hedge funds, CTAs) are the non-commercial group. Net = their longs minus shorts, as a share of all open contracts.
- The rank places today's net position within the last 60 weeks. Near 100 = as long as they have been; near 0 = as short. Extremes are crowded trades that unwind violently.
- This is the TradFi analogue of perp funding: it tells you which side is crowded, not where price goes next.
- Positions are as of Tuesday, published Friday afternoon.
S&P 500: SPECULATIVE NET POSITION OVER TIME % of open interest, weekly
NET SPECULATIVE POSITION
OPEN INTEREST contracts
NEW SUPPLY MEETING DEMAND: TREASURY AUCTIONS
HOW TO READ THIS WINDOW
- The Treasury sells new debt at auction every week. The way an auction clears is a direct read on demand for dollars at that maturity.
- Bid-to-cover: dollars bid per dollar sold. Higher = stronger demand.
- Dealer take: the share primary dealers were forced to absorb. Dealers must buy what nobody else wants, so a high dealer share = weak demand.
- Indirects are a proxy for foreign and institutional buyers. Demand score compares each auction with the previous eight of the same term.
- Results are published by FiscalData with a delay of a few weeks after the auction.
TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING daily
SOFR: THE OVERNIGHT FUNDING RATE % per year
MARKET LIQUIDITY: CAN SIZE TRADE WITHOUT MOVING PRICE
HOW TO READ THIS WINDOW
- Exchange order books for stocks, Treasuries and FX are not free, so this window uses the gauges professionals watch and a price-impact proxy.
- Stress gauges: VIX (equity volatility), MOVE (bond volatility), high-yield spread (credit fear), OFR stress index, Chicago Fed conditions, the dollar. Each is placed in its 1-year range: 0 = calmest, 100 = most stressed.
- Price impact (Amihud): how much the price moves per $1B traded, averaged over 20 days, compared with its 1-year normal. A ratio above 1 means the market is thinner than usual.
- Verdict: CALM, NORMAL, TIGHT, STRESSED, from the average stress percentile and the illiquidity of SPY, TLT and HYG.
STRESS GAUGES bar = position in own 1-year range
ASSETS click a row
S&P 500 IN DETAIL
PRICE 1 year
PRICE IMPACT PER $1B TRADED basis points moved per $1B, 20-day average
VIX and MOVE 1 year
HIGH-YIELD SPREAD and OFR STRESS 1 year
CRYPTO BRIDGE: DOLLARS ON-CHAIN vs DOLLARS IN THE ECONOMY
STABLECOIN SUPPLY all chains, LIQUIDFLOW
STABLECOINS AS % OF M2 how much of the money stock is on-chain
FED NET LIQUIDITY weekly
BITCOIN USD, 5 years
LIVE TAPE: WHERE MONEY IS TRADING RIGHT NOW
HOW TO READ THIS WINDOW
- The other windows run on official data that is published weekly or daily. This one runs on market prices, polled every minute while markets trade (futures and FX trade Monday 05:00 to Saturday 05:00 WIB; US stocks 21:30 to 04:00 WIB, an hour earlier during US summer time).
- Risk tone: each instrument's move today divided by its normal daily move, signed so that stocks, credit and Bitcoin up, VIX, bond volatility and the dollar down, and Treasuries and gold down all count as risk-on. The label is their average: RISK-ON, LEANING RISK-ON, MIXED, LEANING RISK-OFF, RISK-OFF.
- Signed volume: the dollars traded in each 5-minute bar, counted positive when the bar closed higher and negative when lower. It shows which way money is trading through the day. It is not the same as ETF creations, which come once a day after the close (window 2).
- Yields are shown in basis points (0.01%), VIX and MOVE in points. Futures quotes from this free source can be up to about 10 minutes late; ETF and index quotes are close to real time.